Ethereum ETF: Sell the News or Sell the Crypto?

Samson Mow’s Critique

Samson Mow, a Bitcoin enthusiast, has strong doubts about the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF. He argues that:

  • Regulatory inconsistencies: The SEC has approved Bitcoin futures but not a spot ETF. This creates a confusing precedent.
  • Ethereum’s unique characteristics: Ethereum’s staking mechanism and pre-mine make it difficult to categorize as a commodity.
  • Speculative nature: Ethereum’s price has been driven by speculation about ETF approval, not by actual demand.

Mow’s Predictions

Mow believes that both approval and denial of the ETF would be negative for Ethereum:

  • Approval: Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust would become redeemable, flooding the market with ETH.
  • Denial: Speculators would sell their ETH in disappointment.

Declining Odds of Approval

Bloomberg’s ETF expert, Eric Balchunas, has lowered his odds of approval to 35%. The SEC’s cautious stance and historical positions suggest that approval is unlikely.