Samson Mow’s Critique
Samson Mow, a Bitcoin enthusiast, has strong doubts about the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF. He argues that:
- Regulatory inconsistencies: The SEC has approved Bitcoin futures but not a spot ETF. This creates a confusing precedent.
- Ethereum’s unique characteristics: Ethereum’s staking mechanism and pre-mine make it difficult to categorize as a commodity.
- Speculative nature: Ethereum’s price has been driven by speculation about ETF approval, not by actual demand.
Mow’s Predictions
Mow believes that both approval and denial of the ETF would be negative for Ethereum:
- Approval: Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust would become redeemable, flooding the market with ETH.
- Denial: Speculators would sell their ETH in disappointment.
Declining Odds of Approval
Bloomberg’s ETF expert, Eric Balchunas, has lowered his odds of approval to 35%. The SEC’s cautious stance and historical positions suggest that approval is unlikely.
