Billionaire investor Steve Cohen isn’t convinced the US economy is out of the woods yet. He recently shared his concerns at the Sohn Investment Conference.
Recession Odds and Economic Growth
Cohen estimates a 45% chance of a US recession. While he doesn’t believe the US is currently in a recession, he sees significant economic slowdown. He forecasts US economic growth of only 1.5% in 2026, describing it as “OK, but not phenomenal.” This is considerably lower than the historical average.
Stock Market Outlook: A Cautious View
Cohen also commented on the recent stock market rally, calling it “unusual.” He suggests the S&P 500 could drop by as much as 15% or simply trade sideways in the coming months. He emphasized that flat markets are normal and not necessarily a cause for alarm.
The Fed’s Role: Steady Rates Expected
Regarding the Federal Reserve, Cohen believes Chair Jerome Powell will keep interest rates unchanged. He anticipates the Fed will prioritize protecting the economy from potential inflation caused by tariffs.
Echoes of Concern
Cohen’s warning isn’t unique. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon also recently voiced concerns about a potential US recession.
