Bitcoin’s price has been pretty stagnant lately, hanging around $92,000-$95,000. This lack of movement has some people wondering if it’ll ever hit its all-time high again. But, some interesting market data suggests we might be in for a wild ride soon.
What the Open Interest Says
A crypto analytics firm, Alphractal, looked at something called “open interest” (OI). Open interest basically shows how much money is flowing into Bitcoin derivatives. They found some patterns that could predict big price swings.
The 30-Day View
Alphractal noticed that the 30-day change in open interest (OI Delta) is similar to what it looked like right before Bitcoin’s price shot up to its previous all-time high. This suggests a possible repeat of that price action. They describe it as a cycle of increasing, then decreasing OI Delta – a “Phase 1” and “Phase 2” pattern.
The 180-Day View
Looking at the 180-day OI Delta gives an even more interesting picture. A negative 180-day OI Delta usually means the market is either at a bottom or accumulating before a big move. Right now, it’s almost negative, hinting at increased volatility in the near future. However, if it goes fully negative, it could signal a period of consolidation instead.
The Yearly Pattern
Alphractal also points out that the open interest hasn’t grown as much this year as it did in previous years. This could be a repeating pattern in investor behavior.
Bitcoin’s Current Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $103,367, down slightly from the previous day.
