Wells Fargo’s chief economist, Jay Bryson, issued a warning about the US economy’s proximity to a recession. While he’s not currently predicting a recession, he says it wouldn’t take much to push the economy over the edge.
A Close Call
Bryson emphasized that the economy isn’t in a recession yet, but it’s dangerously close. He stated that another significant negative economic event could easily trigger a recession, especially if the economy continues to weaken.
Looking Ahead: 2025 vs. 2026
Bryson’s outlook is more optimistic for 2026 than for 2025. He attributes the projected slowdown in 2025 to the lingering negative effects of Trump-era tariffs. He expects 2026 to see better growth due to potential fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and deregulation.
Fed Rate Cuts Predicted
Bryson also anticipates that the Federal Reserve will significantly lower interest rates within the next year. He predicts a drop from the current 425-450 basis points to around 100 basis points to boost the economy. This rate cut is contingent on rising unemployment, which he expects as the tariff impacts slow economic growth. The Fed, he believes, will respond by cutting rates to stimulate the economy.
Disclaimer: This information is for general knowledge and shouldn’t be considered investment advice. Always conduct your own thorough research before making any financial decisions.
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