Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, believes the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting on June 16-17 could be a major turning point for both the stock market and crypto, especially Bitcoin.
The BOJ’s Tightrope Walk
The BOJ is currently engaged in quantitative tightening (QT), having reduced government bond purchases by ¥400 billion a quarter since August 2024. This month’s meeting will review this policy. However, whispers suggest some BOJ officials want to slow down the QT process even further, potentially reducing bond purchases by only ¥200 billion per quarter starting in April 2027. This cautious approach reflects concerns about the domestic economy. Hayes argues that if the BOJ delays QT or even restarts some quantitative easing (QE), it could significantly boost markets.
Bitcoin’s Recent Surge and Japan’s Bond Yields
Bitcoin recently hit $112,000 (May 22, 2025), just days after Japan’s 30-year bond yield spiked to 3.185% (May 20, 2025). This yield increase raised concerns about Japan’s debt, leading some investors to see Bitcoin as a safer haven, free from government default risk.
Future Outlook: High Stakes, High Rewards (and Risks)
Bitwise Europe’s André Dragosch suggests that continued rising yields could push Bitcoin towards $200,000, highlighting Bitcoin’s decentralized nature as a key advantage. However, the global economic landscape presents challenges. The actions of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other central banks add complexity, and any BOJ move could face regulatory pushback.
What to Watch For
Market analysts will closely scrutinize the BOJ’s statement for clues. Phrases suggesting flexibility or the possibility of future intervention will be key. Any indication of increased tolerance for higher long-term yields could be interpreted as a subtle form of easing. The BOJ’s decision will ripple through global markets, potentially sending Bitcoin and other risk assets soaring (at least temporarily) if a significant easing occurs. A less dramatic shift, however, might only result in a modest market boost. The world waits with bated breath for the June 16-17 announcement.
