Bitcoin’s price has been bouncing around lately, hitting highs above $106,000 before settling back near $103,000. This volatility suggests we’re still a ways off from the price peak. But a new model might offer some clues.
The Decode Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO)
A Bitcoin analyst called “Decode” on X (formerly Twitter) created a sophisticated tool called the Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO). This model crunches about 40 macroeconomic indicators – things like interest rates, global liquidity, and industrial production – into 17 key metrics. These are then displayed as a histogram, showing a cyclical pattern that seems to line up with Bitcoin’s past price peaks.
Looking back at 2013, 2017, and 2021, the light green bars on the histogram appear just before Bitcoin’s price peaked. The shift from deep red to green seems to signal the end of bear markets and the start of bull runs.
As of May 2025, the histogram is still deep red but is slowly climbing (-11.47). This hints that the macroeconomic environment might soon become more favorable for Bitcoin.
Fine-Tuning the Predictions
Decode’s analysis goes beyond just Bitcoin. By comparing the current global situation to the late 1980s and early 1990s, the MTO shows it can accurately predict economic downturns and expansions. In both periods, inflation and low consumer confidence pushed the oscillator into negative territory for years. The shift to green, however, marked the start of long periods of economic growth.
Another chart shows Bitcoin’s weekly trend alongside M2 money supply growth. This highlights how the MTO, in a setting Decode calls “Bitcoin Mode,” becomes even more sensitive to factors directly affecting crypto markets. In this mode, only the most relevant metrics for predicting Bitcoin’s peaks are used.
The Verdict: More Room to Run
Despite recent price increases, the histogram is still in the red. We haven’t seen the crucial deep green, let alone the light green that usually precedes a peak. Based on this, the MTO suggests Bitcoin still has significant upside potential, and a price top is unlikely in 2025. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $103,300.
