Bitcoin’s demand seems to be picking up, based on recent on-chain data. But don’t break out the champagne just yet, says one analyst.
What’s “Apparent Demand”?
The “Apparent Demand” metric measures Bitcoin’s demand by comparing its creation (miners’ rewards) and the change in its supply (specifically, the amount held for over a year). A positive value means more Bitcoin is leaving circulation than is being created – a sign of strong demand. A negative value suggests the opposite: Bitcoin is accumulating, potentially due to low demand.
The Current Situation
A recent look at the 30-day sum of Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand shows an interesting pattern:
- Late 2024: Strong positive demand.
- January & February 2025: Demand weakened but stayed positive.
- March 2025: Demand turned negative.
- Now:
Demand is rising again.
While this upward trend is encouraging, it’s not necessarily a sign of a major market shift.
A Cautious Interpretation
The analyst warns against jumping to conclusions. Looking back at the 2021 bull market, Apparent Demand also turned negative at the peak, only to recover mid-2022. However, this recovery coincided with a continued bear market for Bitcoin’s price. This suggests that the current increase in Apparent Demand might just be a temporary lull in downward pressure, not a confirmation of a major market bottom.
Bitcoin’s Price: A Noteworthy Detail
Unlike previous rebounds, Bitcoin’s price is holding steady around $85,000, adding another layer of complexity to the analysis.
The Bottom Line
While the increase in Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand is noteworthy, it’s too early to declare a bullish reversal. The analyst suggests viewing this as a pause in the downward pressure rather than a definitive signal of accumulation or a macro market bottom.
