June’s crypto markets were surprisingly calm, even with global tensions. But traders are gearing up for a potentially wild July.
June’s Unexpected Calm
Despite some brief price dips caused by geopolitical events (like the Middle East conflict), Bitcoin and Ethereum’s implied volatility actually decreased in June. Traders seemed to already expect things to calm down, and they were right. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 a couple of times but quickly recovered after a ceasefire. Ethereum followed a similar pattern. This all points to traders betting on a limited impact from global events.
July: Brace for Impact
Now, the picture is different. Options market activity suggests traders are bracing for bigger price swings in July, especially for Ethereum.
Bitcoin: Traders are pretty split on Bitcoin. Some are betting on it breaking above $130,000, while others are hedging against a price drop to around $90,000. There’s only a 10% chance of Bitcoin hitting $130,000 by August, according to one model, but the market is clearly anticipating a significant move in either direction.
Ethereum: The outlook for Ethereum is more bullish. A large majority of July call options (bets on price increases) are placed above $3,000, with a significant chunk above $3,500.
Macroeconomic Factors at Play
The overall economic climate is also influencing trader sentiment. Stronger-than-expected US job numbers have reduced expectations of a quick interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This uncertainty is making traders cautious but watchful.
Ethereum’s Bullish Momentum
Ethereum’s bullish outlook is fueled by positive developments like Robinhood’s launch of tokenized stocks and a new Layer 2 solution on Arbitrum. These events boost Ethereum’s appeal and might draw more investment in the coming weeks.
The Bottom Line
Traders are expecting big things in July. With low volatility and divided opinions, the next few weeks will depend on the Fed’s actions, economic data, and any further geopolitical events. While Ethereum’s momentum is stronger, Bitcoin’s options market is poised for a major move, either up or down.
