Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have significantly increased their predictions for the approval of several cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Near-Certain Approval?
They now give a 95% chance of approval by the end of 2025 for ETFs focused on XRP, Solana (SOL), and Litecoin (LTC). This also includes a basket ETF combining several cryptocurrencies. This prediction is based on the SEC acknowledging initial filings and upcoming decisions.
Other Cryptos in the Running
Other cryptocurrencies also have high odds of ETF approval, including Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche, all sitting at a 90% chance. Sui has a 60% chance, while Tron and Pengu are at 50%, with some uncertainty remaining.
Why the Increased Odds?
This significant increase in predicted approval odds is based on three key factors:
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Grayscale’s Potential Success: The upcoming decision on Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) is crucial. If approved, it could set a precedent for other altcoin ETFs. Analysts believe the SEC might approve GDLC due to its relatively small allocation to altcoins (XRP, SOL, and Cardano). Approval is seen as creating a “low-risk sandbox” for the SEC to test before approving standalone altcoin ETFs.
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Commodity Status: The SEC’s acknowledgment of filings suggests that they may view the underlying cryptocurrencies as commodities. This is further supported by the fact that these cryptos are already traded on CFTC-regulated venues.
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Active Dialogue with Issuers: The ongoing back-and-forth between the SEC and ETF issuers (like Canary, VanEck, 21Shares, and Fidelity) mirrors the process that led to Bitcoin and Ether ETF approvals.
Timeline for Decisions
The SEC’s decisions are expected at various times throughout the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. The earliest decisions are expected in early July for the basket ETF, and then October 2025 for several individual crypto ETFs.
Current Market Price
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $2.21.
