Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen believes the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will be the key to unlocking “altseason”—a period where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin.
The Fed’s Influence on Altcoins
Cowen’s analysis combines data from the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet with the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) price ratio. He’s noticed a pattern: previous altseasons only began after the Fed stopped quantitative tightening (QT) and started increasing its balance sheet assets. Essentially, he believes the Fed’s money printing is a major factor.
He points out that during the current market cycle, just like the last one, altcoins have lost value relative to Bitcoin while the Fed implemented tighter monetary policy. Many altcoins hit new lows recently, further supporting his theory. He argues that a significant altseason is unlikely until these altcoins reach their bottom price range.
Memecoins and the Altseason Outlook
Cowen also cautions against the hype surrounding “memecoin supercycles.” While many predict these memecoins will lead the next altseason, he observes that they’ve consistently underperformed Bitcoin since the start of 2022. He suggests that investors should be cautious of such predictions.
In short, Cowen’s prediction hinges on the Fed’s actions. He believes that a shift towards a more expansive monetary policy is the most likely catalyst for the next altseason. Until then, he expects altcoins to continue struggling against Bitcoin.
