Bitcoin’s Potential Peak: Insights from Historical Patterns

Long-Term Holders (LTHs) Selling

Despite the recent bullish market, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have been selling. LTHs are investors who have held their coins for over 155 days.

Net Position Change

The “net position change” metric tracks the net amount of BTC entering or leaving LTH wallets. A negative value indicates that coins are leaving their wallets.

Historical Patterns

During the last two bull runs, LTHs sold heavily for 4-5 months before the market peaked. Currently, LTHs are selling at a rate of 490,000 to 520,000 BTC per month.

Influence of Bitcoin ETFs

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) recently became an ETF, leading to significant outflows. These outflows account for about 20% of the current LTH distribution.

Current Market Conditions

Bitcoin recently surged above $71,000 but has since dropped to $69,700.