Is the Bitcoin bull run over? One expert says yes, another says not so fast. Let’s dive into their arguments.
The Bearish View: Realized Cap as a Warning Sign
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes Bitcoin’s bull market might be finished. He’s looking at something called “Realized Cap.” This isn’t just the current market price; it’s the total value of all Bitcoins based on the price they were last bought at. It represents the actual cost basis for all Bitcoin holders.
He compares this Realized Cap to the Market Cap (total supply x current price). The relationship between how these two metrics change can signal bullish or bearish trends. Recently, the growth rate of the Market Cap has fallen behind the Realized Cap. In the past, this has indicated bearish periods for Bitcoin. Basically, money is flowing in, but the price isn’t rising as much as it used to, a potential red flag.
The Bullish Counterargument: Holding Strong
Analyst James Van Straten disagrees. He points out that during past bear markets, the Realized Cap has seen significant drops as investors sell at a loss. This hasn’t happened yet. In fact, the Realized Cap is still climbing, suggesting investors remain confident and are still buying. Van Straten argues that bear markets typically don’t start with strong investor confidence and continued inflows of capital.
The Verdict? Still Uncertain
So, who’s right? Only time will tell if Bitcoin has entered a bear market. The recent price drop of almost 7%, pushing Bitcoin below $76,500, adds to the uncertainty. Both sides present compelling arguments based on different interpretations of the same data.
