Bitcoin’s been on a tear lately, even after a minor dip from its recent high above $105,000. The fact that it’s stayed above $100,000 for so long has many believing this rally is just getting started. Right now, it looks like Bitcoin is consolidating before another big move upwards.
Entering the Trend Continuation Phase
Crypto analyst Gert van Lagen says Bitcoin is now in the “Trend Continuation” phase. This follows the “Building Pre-Tension” phase that started around $76,000, culminating in the push past $100,000. According to van Lagen, this Trend Continuation phase means Bitcoin’s price will keep climbing to new all-time highs.
His chart shows Bitcoin is still over 100% away from its predicted cycle peak of over $320,000.
The $109,400 Hurdle
But there’s a catch. To confirm this upward trend, Bitcoin needs to break above $109,400 and stay above it, closing the week higher. Failure to do so could signal trouble. A weekly close below $79,000 (a 25% drop from current levels) would completely invalidate the trend continuation theory. For now, Bitcoin seems to be in a re-accumulation phase.
The Road to $320,000 (and Beyond)
If the Trend Continuation plays out, here’s what van Lagen predicts:
- $320,000 Peak: Bitcoin hits $320,000, then starts to fall.
- Distribution Phase: Investors sell off, causing a price drop.
- Fast Price Drop: A quick crash back towards $100,000.
- Small Recovery:
A brief bounce as tension builds. - Another Trend Continuation (Downward): The price continues its decline.
- More Distribution: More selling pressure.
- Another Fast Price Drop: A further plunge into the $10,000 range.
- Potential Recession: A significant market downturn.
- Bottom: Bitcoin could potentially fall below $10,300.
This is a long-term prediction, and obviously, the market is unpredictable. Whether Bitcoin will reach $320,000 or follow this entire path remains to be seen.
