Bitcoin’s price and trading volume have surged recently, defying expectations amidst rising geopolitical tensions. Let’s dive into the details.
A Huge Spike in Bitcoin Trading
Bitcoin’s daily trading volume skyrocketed. After a slow start to the week (under $50 billion on Sunday and Monday), it blasted past $88 billion on Tuesday—a nearly 100% increase! This massive jump happened as Bitcoin’s price swung wildly. This high volatility and volume are typical when prices fluctuate dramatically.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s open interest (the total number of outstanding contracts) remains near all-time highs, around $71 billion. This is close to the record of $80 billion set in May 2025. While other cryptocurrencies are struggling, Bitcoin is holding strong near its all-time highs, suggesting investors are focusing their attention on Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s market dominance is also high, above 64%.
War’s Potential Impact: A Look at the Scenarios
The recent surge in Bitcoin comes as tensions in the Middle East seem to be cooling down, at least for now. However, some are predicting a potential “World War 3” scenario. Analyzing this possibility, one financial analysis firm, The Kobeissi Letter, laid out some potential market reactions:
- 50% chance of World War 3: The S&P 500 could crash by 30%, gold could hit $5,000 per ounce, and oil could reach $100 per barrel.
- 90% chance of World War 3: A devastating 50% crash for the S&P 500, with gold soaring to $10,000 per ounce and oil hitting $200 per barrel.
Given Bitcoin’s historical correlation with the stock market, a major market crash would likely drag Bitcoin down significantly. However, The Kobeissi Letter currently believes the chances of a major global conflict are low and expects a resolution to the current situation. They point to recent futures market movements indicating a de-escalation.
