Could Bitcoin be poised for a massive surge in 2025, echoing its 2017 performance? That’s the prediction from Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI).
A “Macro Summer” Ahead?
Bittel’s outlook for 2025 is optimistic. He sees a “macro summer” – strong economic growth with manageable inflation. He points to improving global manufacturing and more countries entering periods of expansion. While some indicators show minor dips, Bittel believes these are temporary setbacks in an overall positive environment. Easing global financial conditions, falling US bond yields, and a weaker dollar are all contributing factors. He highlights China’s collapsing bond yields as a significant sign that the country can inject more liquidity without causing overheating. This situation mirrors 2017, when a weaker dollar and lower interest rates boosted both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies.
Inflation and the Fed
Bittel acknowledges that inflation remains elevated, largely due to lagging housing costs. However, he expects this to decrease, giving central banks room to ease monetary policy further. While commodity prices might cause temporary inflation spikes, he doesn’t foresee an imminent peak, leaving the Federal Reserve with flexibility.
Bitcoin’s Historical Relationship with the ISM Index
Bittel emphasizes the connection between Bitcoin’s price and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index, a key indicator of business activity. He notes that in 2013 and 2017, when the ISM Index was just above 50, Bitcoin saw massive rallies. In contrast, 2021’s surge ended abruptly when the ISM and liquidity peaked.
Currently, the ISM Index is just climbing above 50, a slower rise than in 2021. Bittel suggests that if the dollar weakens and global liquidity increases (as he predicts), Bitcoin’s trajectory could resemble 2017’s extended upswing rather than 2021’s shorter, sharper rise.
The 23x Potential (With a Caveat)
While Bittel doesn’t give a specific price target, he mentions the 23x increase Bitcoin saw in 2017. He stresses that this isn’t a guaranteed outcome, emphasizing the inherent volatility of Bitcoin. However, he believes the conditions are ripe for a significant upswing, though 20-30% corrections are expected even during strong rallies. He highlights that understanding the economy’s direction is key to understanding asset movements, and that liquidity, especially from China, could be a major driver for digital assets in 2025.
Buy the Dips?
Bittel’s core message is that the current cyclical conditions, driven by easier financial conditions, favor Bitcoin. He advises buying during dips, while carefully monitoring for signs of a deeper economic slowdown. He reminds investors that Bitcoin is inherently volatile, but the current economic climate could create significant opportunities for growth. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $97,710.
