Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs exec and well-known market analyst, is predicting a significant Bitcoin price increase over the next year. He believes a weakening US dollar will be the key driver.
A Weaker Dollar, a Stronger Bitcoin?
Pal, who boasts over 1.1 million followers on X (formerly Twitter), argues that policymakers will intentionally weaken the US dollar to make it easier to manage the massive national debt. This, he says, will flood the global market with money, boosting assets like Bitcoin. He explains that a weaker dollar benefits everyone struggling with dollar-denominated debt. While acknowledging the risks of rapid devaluation, he sees a gradual decline as necessary over the next 12 months. This, he claims, is a major factor influencing global money supply.
The Liquidity Link
Pal supports his Bitcoin prediction by highlighting a strong correlation (87%) between global liquidity and Bitcoin’s price. He points to 2020 as an example, where a recession coupled with increased liquidity led to a Bitcoin rally. He shared a chart illustrating Bitcoin’s tendency to follow global liquidity trends, with liquidity changes leading Bitcoin price movements by about 12 weeks.
Dismissing Other Factors
Pal emphasizes that, based on his analysis, liquidity is the most significant market driver, outweighing factors like tariffs, politics, and interest rates. He believes his theory, if proven correct, would solidify liquidity’s dominant role in market trends.
Note: At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $93,570, and the US national debt stood at $36.214 trillion. This information is for context only and should not be considered investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
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