A well-known trader who accurately predicted the 2022 bear market bottom has shared his Bitcoin forecast after last week’s halving.
Diminishing Returns
Dave the Wave, the pseudonymous analyst, believes Bitcoin has consistently seen diminishing returns after every bull market since 2012. He expects gains of over 626% from the bottom, significantly lower than the 1,275% gains in the 2020 cycle.
Logarithmic Growth Curve
Dave the Wave uses the logarithmic growth curve (LGC) to analyze Bitcoin’s path forward. This model predicts market cycle highs and lows while filtering out short-term volatility.
Halving as a Midpoint
The analyst sees the halving as the midpoint of a bull market. He expects Bitcoin to rally steeply towards the top of his LGC model from this point.
All-Time High Before Halving
Dave the Wave believes it’s not unusual for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high before the halving. He says halvings mark a recovery of price and a midway point towards the peaks.
Price Prediction
According to Dave the Wave’s chart, Bitcoin could reach $169,500 in the last quarter of 2024.
