Bitcoin’s price has taken a significant dive, dropping over 22% from its peak. While some weekly and monthly indicators still look bullish, many online are predicting a bear market. Two analysts offer different perspectives on what could decide Bitcoin’s fate.
$95,000: The Make-or-Break Point?
Crypto analyst Charting Guy (@ChartingGuy) highlights the crucial $95,000 price level. He explains that if Bitcoin can reclaim and hold this level (which acted as support in February before becoming resistance in March), it suggests bullish strength. This level aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement level (0.618), often seen as a significant indicator.
Failing to break above $95,000, Charting Guy warns, could signal a prolonged bear market. He believes Bitcoin and the S&P 500 need to overcome similar technical hurdles before a sustained rally can begin. He predicts a potential bull run from April to June, but this depends on a strong May and Bitcoin and the S&P 500 successfully navigating their respective “golden pockets” (Fibonacci retracement levels). If the market doesn’t show strength by late April/early May, he plans to sell.
A More Cautious Outlook
Another analyst, @wauwda, presents a more pessimistic view. He points to several bearish signals for both Bitcoin and the S&P 500, including bearish crossovers in indicators like the Stochastic RSI and MACD, and bearish divergence in the RSI.
While he acknowledges the possibility of a short-term bounce due to the currently extreme bearish sentiment, he draws parallels to the 2021 market peak. He cites several indicators of market euphoria in 2021, such as celebrity endorsements, corporate involvement, and meme-driven hype, comparing them to similar events happening now (e.g., a Tron founder buying and eating a $6.2 million banana!).
Although this cycle’s euphoria might differ, Wauwda sees similar warning signs as those preceding the 2021 market top. He’s keeping a close eye on ETH/BTC and Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD), but notes their current volatility makes it hard to draw clear conclusions.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $84,206.
