Bitcoin’s price has historically followed a four-year cycle, but that might be a thing of the past.
The Old Cycle is Dead
According to Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, the days of relying on the four-year Bitcoin cycle are over. He believes fundamental changes are reshaping the crypto market.
Institutional Money and Regulation Change the Game
Instead of wild swings driven by Bitcoin halvings, the market is now driven by steady institutional investment and clearer regulations. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US has brought in over $14 billion, making crypto accessible to a wider range of investors. Pension funds and hedge funds are building long-term positions, reducing reliance on unpredictable retail trading. The GENIUS Act (passed in early 2025) has also boosted confidence by providing clearer rules for crypto businesses in the US. Ethereum is also seeing significant growth, with over 33 million ETH staked.
Altcoins Take Center Stage
With less predictable market cycles, investors are looking at altcoins with real-world applications. XRP, despite its legal battles, is a prime example. Its use in international payments and support from major financial players, including interest from the UAE, makes it a promising investment. Some predict XRP could hit $5, driven by its real-world use and global adoption.
The Future of Crypto: Steady Growth
Hougan predicts 2026 will be a year of steady, sustainable growth, rather than dramatic price spikes. This means investors might need to focus less on short-term market timing and more on long-term trends. This shift in focus could be the biggest change in the crypto market yet.