The question of whether a US Bitcoin reserve is already factored into Bitcoin’s price is heating up. Crypto analyst MacroScope (@MacroScope17) has sparked a new round of discussion on X (formerly Twitter), arguing that it’s not.
The “Priced In” Debate
The idea of something being “priced in” means the market already reflects all known information about it. MacroScope compares the current speculation about a US strategic Bitcoin reserve (SBR) to the hype before Bitcoin ETFs launched.
He points out that ETFs made Bitcoin more accessible, leading to a surge in investment. He believes an SBR would have an even bigger impact, as it would represent official government backing of Bitcoin. This would attract a massive influx of capital, not just from existing investors but from entirely new players.
A Global Arms Race?
MacroScope argues that an SBR wouldn’t just boost the price through increased access; it would also trigger a global “arms race.” If the US started buying Bitcoin, other countries like China and Russia might follow suit to stay competitive, further driving up demand.
He supports his argument by citing a previous post where he emphasized that “pricing in” is limited when a huge amount of capital is still on the sidelines. The potential entry of governments into the Bitcoin market represents a massive expansion of the potential investor pool.
Support for the SBR Idea
MacroScope’s views are echoed by Nick Moran, CEO of Space Race Energy, who believes a large-scale SBR is likely under a second Trump administration. This sentiment is further fueled by comments from Senator Cynthia Lummis, a strong Bitcoin advocate, who jokingly suggested a Bitcoin arms race between nations.
David Bailey, CEO of BTC Inc. and a crypto advisor to Trump’s campaign, is also optimistic. He expects executive orders related to Bitcoin and an SBR to be issued soon, possibly within Trump’s first 100 days in office.
The Current Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $102,295. Whether this price already accounts for a potential US Bitcoin reserve remains a key question in the crypto market.
