On-chain data reveals Ethereum’s price has fallen below almost all investor cost basis levels, except one. Let’s dive into where this crucial support might lie.
Realized Price: The Key Indicator
Analyst MAC_D highlighted a key support level for Ethereum: the Realized Price. This metric tracks the average cost basis for different groups of ETH holders. If the Realized Price is below the current market price, most holders in that group are losing money. If it’s above, they’re generally profitable.
This is important because investor behavior often changes when their profits or losses are threatened. A price drop below their purchase price might lead to selling. Conversely, a dip from above their purchase price might encourage buying, creating support.
The Network’s Realized Price: A Broken Support?
A particularly significant Realized Price is the one for the entire Ethereum network. Historically, this has acted as a strong support level. Currently, it sits around $2,250. Unfortunately, Ethereum’s recent price drop has broken below this level, meaning the average ETH holder is now underwater.
Mega Whales: Ethereum’s Last Hope?
With the network-wide Realized Price broken, we need to look at individual investor groups. The chart below shows the Realized Price for different ETH holding sizes:
- 100-1,000 ETH
- 1,000-10,000 ETH
- 10,000-100,000 ETH
- 100,000+ ETH
The recent crash has pushed most of these groups into the red. Only the largest holders (those with over 100,000 ETH) are still profitable, with an average acquisition cost around $1,290. This group’s Realized Price acted as support during the 2022 bear market, so it could potentially offer support again. However, a further price drop is needed before this level is retested.
Current ETH Price
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $1,500, a significant drop from recent highs.
