Ethereum’s price is hovering around $2,600, showing a steady upward trend since late April. But according to technical analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA), the charts reveal something much bigger is happening.
Historical Signals Point to a Bull Run
Kevin’s analysis focuses on several key indicators suggesting a significant shift in the Ethereum market:
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Monthly Chart: He points to a “massive demand candle” in April, a pattern only seen twice before, both times preceding major price increases. The May candle further confirmed this, showing a 41% price jump.
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High-Momentum Indicators: Several indicators are aligning in a historically bullish configuration. The monthly stochastic RSI is about to make a “V-shaped cross” – a pattern last seen at the 2020 market bottom. The MACD histogram shows “coiled energy” after a four-year compression.
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On-Chain Data: On-chain money flow is at a historic low but is already showing signs of reversal, suggesting that large holders are accumulating.
Whale Activity and Dominance Metrics
Kevin also highlights several dominance metrics indicating a potential market-wide shift:
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Ethereum Dominance: He uses Heikin-Ashi candles to show that Ethereum dominance has reached the same level it was at before the 2019-20 bull run. Other indicators like the Market Cipher and VWAP also show bullish signals.
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ETH/BTC Ratio: This ratio has hit the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the 2020-21 advance, showing similar bullish patterns as the Ethereum dominance chart. The monthly stochastic RSI for this pair has been below the bear-market exhaustion threshold for nearly three years, suggesting a potential reversal.
Kevin emphasizes that these signals indicate whales are accumulating Ethereum, largely unnoticed by the broader market.
Macro Factors and Altcoin Outperformance
While acknowledging the $2,800–3,000 resistance level, Kevin believes the overall technical picture is strongly bullish. He argues that even without immediate Fed rate cuts, looser monetary policy could trigger a significant Ethereum price increase. Historically, strong Ethereum performance has led to broader altcoin gains, suggesting a potential positive ripple effect across the crypto market.
The Bottom Line
Despite potential resistance, the confluence of technical and on-chain indicators suggests a potential end to the multi-year bear market for Ethereum. While these changes won’t happen overnight, the long-term signals are pointing towards a bullish future.
