A technical expert, Tony Severino, is sounding the alarm bells. He says a key indicator, the Fischer Transform, has just turned bearish for Bitcoin and altcoins – the first time since 2021. This could mean big trouble for crypto investors.
Bearish Signals Across the Board
Severino noticed that the 12-week Fischer Transform for the total crypto market cap flipped bearish. This hasn’t happened since December 2021, and the last time before that was in January 2018. Those previous bearish flips led to significant market crashes – 66% and 82% drops, respectively. Yikes!
He also pointed out that Bitcoin’s own 12-week Fischer Transform is flashing red. This indicator smooths out price data to make it easier to spot major market shifts. Severino claims this indicator has never been wrong about tops or bottoms. If he’s right, we might be at a major peak.
More Than Just the Fischer Transform
Severino isn’t basing his prediction solely on the Fischer Transform. He’s also looking at other indicators, like the Parabolic SAR and Average Directional Index (ADX), which suggest Bitcoin’s upward momentum is weakening. He even warned of a potential drop to as low as $22,000.
A More Optimistic Viewpoint
Not everyone is panicking. Crypto analyst Kevin Capital acknowledges that Bitcoin is in a correction phase, but he believes it’s temporary. He’s more focused on how strong the bounce back will be – will Bitcoin hit new highs, or will we see a weaker recovery followed by a bear market? He’s looking at factors like money flow, overall market fundamentals, and trading volume to make his predictions. A big factor influencing his outlook is the anticipated announcement of reciprocal tariffs by Donald Trump.
Current Market Conditions
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,000, a slight increase over the last 24 hours. But with these bearish signals, that might not last.
