Bitcoin’s price has been struggling lately, and some experts are starting to worry. It hasn’t reached its all-time high from March 2023, and one analyst thinks things could get even worse.
A Bearish Prediction
Crypto analyst Bob Loukas thinks Bitcoin might be in for a big drop. He’s basing his prediction on a theory that Bitcoin follows a 16-year cycle, and we’re currently in the final four-year phase.
Loukas thinks this phase could end in one of two ways:
- A “distribution phase” where prices peak and then fall.
- An “upward phase” where Bitcoin has one last surge before crashing.
He doesn’t think Bitcoin will keep going up forever. He believes a bear market is coming, even though he’s not sure when.
Signs of Trouble
Loukas sees some specific signs that could indicate a downturn:
- Bitcoin closing below the 10-month moving average during a bull market.
- A monthly close below $58,800.
He thinks these could signal the start of a downward spiral, potentially leading to a drop to around $28,500 by 2026.
He’s not saying this is guaranteed, but he thinks there’s a 10% to 15% chance it could happen.
Retail Interest is Fading
Loukas also thinks the lack of new retail investors in the crypto market could be a problem for Bitcoin. People aren’t as excited about crypto as they used to be, and that could make it harder for Bitcoin to grow.
He believes this lack of interest is because people are seeing crypto as just a way to make quick money, rather than a technology with real potential.
Overall, Loukas thinks there’s a chance Bitcoin could crash, but he’s not sure when it will happen. He’s just warning investors to be prepared for the possibility. /p>
