Realized Losses
VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets, Matthew Sigel, highlights realized losses by short-term holders as a bullish indicator. These losses represent the difference between the buying and selling prices of BTC holders. A high level of realized losses, such as the recent $500 million, suggests that short-term traders are selling at a loss, indicating a potential bottom.
Volatility
Sigel also points to low BTC volatility as a positive sign. Volatility measures how prices have fluctuated historically. A low volatility reading, such as the current 21-day annualized volatility, indicates that price movements have been relatively stable. This stability suggests that the market is not in a state of panic or extreme uncertainty.
Drawdown
Finally, Sigel mentions BTC’s drawdown from its peak of $73,737. Drawdown refers to the percentage decrease from the highest price. The current drawdown is a significant 16%, indicating that the market has corrected but may be approaching a point of recovery.
Conclusion
Sigel’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin is showing bullish signs based on realized losses, volatility, and drawdown. These metrics indicate that the market may be stabilizing and that a potential reversal could be on the horizon.
