Bitcoin’s price hasn’t quite hit the predicted $100,000 mark yet, but things are looking up. Recent trends suggest a big price jump is on the horizon, possibly before the year ends.
Past Performance: A Bullish December?
Bitcoin has a history of impressive December gains following US presidential elections. After the 2016 and 2020 elections, it saw increases of 30.8% and 46.92%, respectively. This year, the situation might be even better.
The Current Climate: More Than Just Hope
This time around, there are some key differences. We now have Bitcoin ETFs, allowing institutional investors to easily get involved. This influx of institutional money helps absorb selling pressure from individual investors, both short-term and long-term. November was already great for Bitcoin, ending 38% higher than it started. All eyes are now on December. The Fear & Greed Index is showing extreme greed, a level of optimism reminiscent of Bitcoin’s previous bull run, where it skyrocketed from $15,000 to $57,000 in a short time. If history repeats, a 30-46% December gain could push Bitcoin to $125,000 – $140,000 before the year’s end.
Supply Crunch: Fueling the Fire
Adding to the positive outlook, on-chain data shows a significant amount of Bitcoin (over 55,000, worth roughly $5.34 billion) has recently been moved off exchanges. This suggests a supply shortage as investors hold onto their Bitcoin, indicating strong long-term confidence.
The Bottom Line: A Bullish Outlook?
Currently trading around $96,454, Bitcoin seems poised for a potential run towards $125,000–$140,000. The first hurdle is breaking the $100,000 psychological barrier, which could trigger a wave of buying. However, to maintain the bullish momentum, Bitcoin needs to stay above $90,000. Fortunately, the average mining cost is around $90,524, and Bitcoin has historically never fallen below this during bull runs.
