A popular YouTube analyst from the InvestAnswers channel has offered a prediction for Bitcoin’s price by the end of the year. Their forecast is based on the global M2 money supply – essentially, the total amount of money circulating in the financial system.
The Model and the Prediction
The analyst’s model assumes a portion of newly created money will flow into Bitcoin. They believe a reasonable estimate is 0.5% of this new money entering the Bitcoin market. Based on this, their model suggests a Bitcoin price of around $115,000 by year’s end.
Higher Possibilities, But Less Likely
The analyst acknowledges that if a larger percentage (e.g., 1%) of the new money flowed into Bitcoin, the price could reach $146,000. However, they consider this less likely. They also mention the possibility of a nation-state adopting Bitcoin, which could significantly alter their prediction and potentially drive the price much higher. This is because the first country to make a significant Bitcoin purchase would gain a considerable advantage.
Dismissing Extreme Predictions
The analyst dismisses more extreme predictions, such as Bitcoin reaching half a million dollars or even $250,000 by the end of the year, calling them unrealistic. They reiterate their belief that $115,000-$120,000 is a more plausible target. This prediction has been consistent for them since 2023.
Current Price and Disclaimer
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $82,100. It’s important to remember that this is just one analyst’s prediction, and the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. Any investment decisions should be made after thorough research and consideration of your own risk tolerance.
