Bitcoin’s price recently dipped below $96,000 after briefly touching $99,000, leaving the market in a holding pattern. But a fascinating on-chain metric might hint at what’s next.
The aSOPR: A Bitcoin Profitability Gauge
Glassnode, a blockchain analytics firm, highlighted Bitcoin’s aSOPR (adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio) hitting 1.01. This metric is crucial because it shows whether Bitcoin holders are generally selling at a profit or a loss.
- aSOPR > 1: People are mostly selling at a profit.
- aSOPR < 1: People are mostly selling at a loss.
An aSOPR of 1.01 means people are barely breaking even. This is a significant point, historically speaking.
History Repeating Itself?
Interestingly, similar aSOPR resets to around 1.01 in the past have preceded significant Bitcoin price rallies. In 2021, this happened before a bull run that took Bitcoin to $64,800. A similar event in late 2023 led to a price surge to around $69,000.
If the aSOPR stays above 1.01, it could signal buyer confidence and a potential price rally. However, if it falls below 1.0, it could indicate more selling pressure and further price drops.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $96,300, down almost 2% in the last day. Daily trading volume is up significantly (51%), which could mean either panicked selling or strategic accumulation by buyers.
- Breaking above $99,000: Could signal the end of the current sideways price movement and a sustained uptrend.
- Falling below $95,000: Could open the door to further price drops, potentially even down to $76,000, according to some analysts.
The aSOPR is just one factor to consider, but its historical significance makes it worth watching closely. The next few days could be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
