Many crypto investors are worried. Bitcoin’s price has been bouncing around wildly—above $100,000, then below $90,000. Is the bull market over? A leading crypto analytics firm, Glassnode, says no.
Bitcoin Remains Bullish
Despite recent price dips, Glassnode insists Bitcoin is still in bullish territory. Their analysis shows Bitcoin is currently in a correction phase, down about 11% from its all-time high of $108,000. However, the price is still above several key support levels, suggesting the overall trend remains positive. They also point to relatively low levels of investor distress, indicating a healthy market.
How They Figured It Out
Glassnode uses a sophisticated scoring system—the MVRV Z-score—to determine whether Bitcoin is bullish or bearish. This model looks at a rolling one-year window of data. According to their analysis, Bitcoin is still in bullish territory, though they highlight $88,400 as a crucial support level to watch. The MVRV score compares Bitcoin’s market value to its last traded price, helping to identify price extremes. It measures how many standard deviations the current price is from the historical average.
Predicting Bitcoin’s Peak
Glassnode predicts Bitcoin will likely peak at two standard deviations above its average price. As long as it stays above the average, the outlook remains bullish. Conversely, if the price falls below the average and nears 1.5 standard deviations below, it signals a bearish trend.
Using their model, Glassnode estimates the average MVRV Z-score translates to a Bitcoin price of around $91,000. Two standard deviations above this would put the peak around $113,000, while 1.5 standard deviations below would place it at $75,000. Since the current price (at the time of writing) is above $99,000, Glassnode concludes Bitcoin remains in a bullish phase.
