Bitcoin’s open interest—a measure of outstanding derivative contracts—has skyrocketed again, surpassing previous record highs. This surge comes as the Bitcoin price has comfortably stayed above $100,000 for a while, boosting investor confidence.
History Repeating Itself?
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen this. Back in December 2024, open interest climbed past $70 billion, a record at the time, coinciding with Bitcoin hitting $100,000 for the first time. But that celebration was short-lived. The price plunged, and open interest crashed by 40% to around $40 billion by May 2025.
Now, open interest is back above $70 billion, nearing the $77 billion peak from May 2025, and Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high of $117,000. While this might seem bullish, history suggests caution.
Could We See Another Crash?
The current situation mirrors the December 2024 scenario: a price surge, high open interest, and then… a potential crash. Some analysts are predicting a significant downturn.
- Bearish Predictions: Several experts are forecasting a substantial Bitcoin price drop. One analyst predicts a nearly 50% crash, taking the price down to $60,000. Another anticipates a “Black Swan” event (like the COVID-19 market crash) that could send Bitcoin below $100,000 and severely impact other cryptocurrencies.
This bearish outlook comes despite increased institutional investment in Bitcoin. The combination of high open interest, new all-time highs, and expert predictions of a crash paints a picture of a potentially volatile market. The possibility of a repeat of the 2024/2025 price drop is a real concern.
