Bitcoin recently shot up past $94,000, exciting many crypto investors. But it hasn’t really broken through the $95,000 barrier. This is puzzling, especially since many predicted a fifth wave that would easily push Bitcoin over $100,000.
The Elusive 5th Wave
Looking at the weekly Bitcoin chart through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, we see a classic impulsive sequence. However, this fifth wave isn’t behaving as expected. It started mid-2024, alongside Bitcoin’s initial rally towards $100,000. This is the final wave in a series that began back in late 2022.
The problem? It’s an extended fifth wave. This means the final upward push is taking longer than usual, with its own smaller waves within it. That’s why Bitcoin is still below $100,000. Currently, we’re apparently in the third of these smaller waves. If this extended wave plays out completely, it could align with the typical four-year Bitcoin cycle, potentially peaking above $170,000. One analyst (“Charting Guy” on X) even suggests this could trigger huge gains for other cryptocurrencies later on.
Where is Bitcoin Headed? Multiple Predictions
Besides the extended fifth wave scenario, there are other price predictions. The $95,000 level acted as a target for a short-term rally. Breaking past it is crucial for continued upward momentum.
Other potential targets include:
- A possible double top around $109,000.
- A bullish Fibonacci extension towards $128,000 (the 1.414 Fibonacci level).
- A more optimistic, long-term projection near $173,000 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension), potentially the peak of the extended fifth wave.
Cautious Signals
Despite the price increase, some indicators are flashing yellow. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart shows lower highs – a bearish divergence. This suggests weakening momentum, even with the price hitting new highs. It doesn’t rule out further price increases, but it does make corrections more likely, which is common with extended fifth waves.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $94,686. Interestingly, on-chain data indicates a potential supply squeeze as Bitcoin is leaving exchanges.