Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas is taking a cautious approach to Bitcoin. While he still believes in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, he thinks there’s a significant chance it’s already hit its peak for this four-year cycle.
Time to Take Profits?
Loukas recently sold a third of his model portfolio’s Bitcoin holdings at $79,500. He cites a combination of worrisome technical indicators and a shaky global economy as reasons for this move. He’s not predicting a crash, but he estimates there’s about a 33% chance Bitcoin has already topped out. This isn’t a knee-jerk reaction; it’s part of a long-term strategy based on Bitcoin’s historical price cycles. He points to the February lows as a significant warning sign.
Technical Trouble and Macro Headwinds
Loukas highlights several technical chart breakdowns as adding to his concerns. While he acknowledges that technical analysis isn’t perfect, these factors, combined with the current economic climate, make him more cautious. He’s particularly worried about the global economic situation, including trade issues and the potential for a recession. He believes Bitcoin’s close ties to traditional markets make a complete decoupling from a broader market downturn unlikely.
A Potential Bear Case
Loukas outlines a possible scenario where Bitcoin could drop to around $52,000 – a roughly 50% correction from its January highs. He emphasizes this isn’t a prediction, but rather a possibility he’s hedging against. He sees this potential drop as a possible buying opportunity. A significant rally followed by a new low would, in his view, confirm the cycle top.
A Bullish Alternative?
However, Loukas hasn’t completely ruled out further gains. He suggests a less common scenario where Bitcoin peaks later than usual, potentially leading to a brief correction before continuing its upward trend into the next cycle. This would involve a more complex price pattern.
Risk Management, Not Capitulation
Ultimately, Loukas frames his decision as smart risk management, not a bearish prediction. He prefers to secure some profits now rather than risk losing everything in a potential downturn. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $77,743.
