Crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino is urging caution: don’t compare Bitcoin’s current price action to its 2017 bull run. He says a key indicator tells a different story.
A Technical Indicator’s Tale
Severino’s warning centers around the monthly stochastic oscillator, a tool that gauges whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Looking at Bitcoin’s long-term chart (since 2013), he sees a pattern that doesn’t match the hype. Many are drawing parallels to 2017 based on the oscillator’s current position, but Severino disagrees.
The oscillator is currently around 60 – the same level it hit during a 2017 correction. However, Severino points out that this isn’t the same as the peak momentum of the 2017 bull run. Instead, it more closely resembles the start of the 2018 bear market, which saw Bitcoin plummet 49% in a single month. He warns that current similarities to 2017 are misleadingly bullish; Bitcoin might be heading for a similar correction or even a bear market.
Bitcoin’s Price: A Tightrope Walk
Bitcoin’s price has been stuck in a range between $81,000 and $84,500. On-chain data shows short-term buyers are slowing down, which isn’t a good sign for bulls. Plus, one model suggests the correction could last weeks.
Despite this, Bitcoin has held above $80,000, even after recent market turmoil (like President Trump’s proposed tariffs). Interestingly, unlike traditional markets (Dow, S&P, NASDAQ), Bitcoin has rebounded, potentially showing a decoupling from traditional finance. This is unprecedented!
The Bottom Line
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,693. Severino’s warning is a stark reminder that past performance isn’t indicative of future results. While Bitcoin has shown resilience, the technical indicators suggest caution is warranted.
