Bitcoin’s price is stuck, hovering just below $90,000. After weeks of uncertainty, the market’s feeling cautious, not panicked, but a clear direction is still missing.
A Tight Squeeze: Low Volatility, Big Potential
Analysts are divided. Some fear a continued price drop if Bitcoin can’t break through $90,000, while others predict a big jump upwards if it does. Adding to the mystery, Bitcoin’s “Realized Volatility” is super low—this has happened six other times this year. Historically, low volatility like this often leads to sudden, significant price changes, either up or down. One key metric, the Garman-Klass Volatility indicator, is flashing a warning, suggesting a big move is coming.
Bitcoin’s Momentum Falters
Bitcoin’s holding above $85,000, which is good, but the upward momentum is fading. Repeated attempts to break above $90,000 have failed. If Bitcoin falls below $85,000, a more significant drop could follow. Again, experts disagree on what’s next: some predict a longer correction, while others remain hopeful for a bullish breakout.
On-Chain Data Points to a Potential Breakout
Analyst Axel Adler pointed out that this is the seventh time this year Bitcoin has experienced this low volatility. In four out of the previous six times, Bitcoin saw a sharp price increase afterward. In the other two, it dropped. This low volatility period could be the calm before the storm, leading to a big price swing—either up or down.
Key Price Levels to Watch
Bitcoin’s currently trading around $87,000, bouncing between $84,000 and $88,000. To start a new uptrend, it needs to decisively break above $90,000. The 4-hour 200-day moving average and exponential moving average are providing some short-term support around $86,000-$87,000. Losing support at $85,000 could trigger a more serious drop, potentially to $81,000. The next big move, up or down, will likely set the tone for the coming weeks. Bulls need to act fast to regain control before the market shifts against them.
