Bitcoin’s price has been a rollercoaster lately, dropping to around $77,000 before bouncing back above $85,000. While some are worried about a market crash, IntoTheBlock, a crypto analytics firm, thinks the best might be yet to come.
Halving History: Diminishing Returns?
IntoTheBlock looked at Bitcoin’s history after each “halving” – an event where the rate at which new Bitcoins are created is cut in half. These halvings happen every four years and are big deals for the market.
Here’s what they found:
- First Halving (2012): Massive gains! Between 6,000% and 8,000%, eventually settling around 1,600% – 4,000%.
- Second Halving (2016): Still strong, with around 2,000% gains, settling at around 600%.
- Third Halving (2020): More modest gains, around 600%.
The trend is clear: Gains after each halving are getting smaller. This suggests Bitcoin’s growth is slowing down, a sign of market maturity. After all, it’s now the eighth largest asset globally.
The Current Cycle: How Much Higher?
So far, the current cycle has only seen about 60% gains post-halving. But IntoTheBlock predicts the maximum gains could still reach between 50% and 150%. That’s a lot of potential upside!
When Will Bitcoin Peak?
Historically, Bitcoin’s peak price after a halving comes 12-18 months later. Following that pattern, we might see a major price increase sometime between mid-2025 and late 2025.
However, it’s important to remember that things are different this time around. Institutional investors are more involved, and government policies (like US tariffs) could impact the market.
Right now, Bitcoin is trading around $84,391, slightly down for the week. But based on this analysis, the ride might not be over yet.
