A VanEck expert predicts Bitcoin could hit a whopping $180,000 in 2025, but only if certain market signals stay quiet. Let’s break down why.
The Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle
Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, sees a pattern in Bitcoin’s price: a strong three-year run after each four-year halving cycle, followed by a significant correction (around 60-80%) in the fourth year. Since the last halving was in April 2024, he expects 2024 and 2025 to be bullish years. He bases this on historical data showing Bitcoin’s price has increased by at least 2000% in past cycles. Even if that growth is halved, Bitcoin could still reach $180,000 from a trough of around $18,000.
Warning Signs to Watch
Sigel isn’t blindly optimistic. He highlights key indicators that could signal a market top:
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Derivatives Funding Rates: If the cost to hold bullish Bitcoin positions on leveraged markets stays above 10% for more than a couple of months, it’s a red flag. However, recent market activity has lowered these rates.
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Unrealized Profits: High levels of unrealized profits on the blockchain could lead to a wave of selling. Currently, these levels aren’t alarming.
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Retail Speculation: A surge in retail investors using leverage could also indicate an impending correction.
Sigel emphasizes that if Bitcoin hits $180,000 without these warning signs, further growth is possible. But if these signals appear at a lower price (say, $150,000), it might be time to take profits.
Long-Term Bitcoin Predictions: Way Beyond $180,000
Sigel also looks further ahead. Comparing Bitcoin to gold, he suggests that if Bitcoin reached a market cap similar to half of gold’s (excluding industrial and jewelry use), the price could reach approximately $450,000.
Even more ambitiously, VanEck’s long-term model considers a scenario where central banks hold Bitcoin as reserves, and Bitcoin becomes a settlement currency for global trade, potentially reaching a staggering $3 million per coin by 2050. This, of course, is a long-term projection with many assumptions.
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $107,219.
