Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, thinks Bitcoin’s price is about to skyrocket. He predicts a massive rally, driven by what he calls “stealth printing” by central banks around the world.
The End of the Halving Cycle?
Hayes believes Bitcoin’s old four-year cycle, tied to mining profitability, is a thing of the past. Now, he says, Bitcoin is a mainstream asset, reacting to global financial events. He sees it as the best indicator of how much money central banks are creating or destroying.
Central Banks and Stealth Printing
Hayes focuses on the actions of major central banks like the Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank. He thinks the Fed, in particular, is secretly easing monetary policy, even though they say they’re worried about inflation. He points to things like the Fed potentially slowing down or stopping its quantitative tightening (QT) program as evidence. He believes that the Fed’s actions will ultimately boost dollar liquidity.
The Bottom Is In (Probably)
Hayes thinks Bitcoin’s recent price drop is over, although it might test the lows again. He believes a key floor has been established, and that the price is more likely to go up than down. He sees this as a turning point in monetary policy. Once central banks stop tightening, or never really start, he expects Bitcoin to surge.
Regulations Don’t Matter
Hayes doesn’t think cryptocurrency regulations will stop Bitcoin’s growth. He believes Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it immune to traditional regulations.
A Million-Dollar Bitcoin?
Hayes suggests Bitcoin could reach a “numerically interesting number” – perhaps even $1 million – in the next bull run. While he doesn’t give a precise target, he thinks a round number, like $1 million, is psychologically significant. He believes this will happen once central banks realize they’ve gone too far in trying to control inflation and spending. They’ll start printing money again, and Bitcoin will benefit.
The Bottom Line
Hayes believes Bitcoin’s price is entirely dependent on global liquidity. He thinks central banks, especially the Fed, are about to unleash more stimulus, leading to a massive Bitcoin rally. He sees the signs, and thinks the bottom is in. He even suggests a price of $1 million is possible, starting as early as April. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $85,765.
