A new report from Fidelity predicts a big change in how Bitcoin is held. It says a growing chunk of Bitcoin – coins that haven’t moved in 10 years or more – is getting bigger faster than new Bitcoins are being created. This is a first in Bitcoin’s history!
Ancient Bitcoin Outpaces New Supply
The report, released in June 2025, shows that “ancient” Bitcoin is now accumulating at a rate of about 566 coins per day, beating the 450 new coins mined daily. This means over 17% of all Bitcoin (around 3.4 million coins, worth over $360 billion at the time) is sitting untouched for over a decade. A significant portion of this “ancient” Bitcoin is believed to be owned by Bitcoin’s mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Some of it is likely lost forever.
The Impact of Hoarded Bitcoin
This isn’t just about numbers; it’s about how this affects Bitcoin’s market. The report suggests that these long-term holders are having a bigger impact on the market. The fact that so much Bitcoin is locked away makes the remaining Bitcoin even more scarce.
However, it’s not all static. While “ancient” Bitcoin rarely moves, there were some significant shifts after the 2024 US election. More long-term holders moved their coins then than usual, possibly affecting the price. It’s important to note that this movement doesn’t necessarily mean selling; coins could be moved for various reasons.
The Future of Ancient Bitcoin
Fidelity projects that by:
- 2028: 20% of Bitcoin will be “ancient”.
- 2034: 25% will be “ancient”.
- 2035: A whopping 30% could be “ancient”!
This projection includes Bitcoin held by public companies that own at least 1,000 BTC. Even if these companies aren’t necessarily long-term holders, their holdings could significantly contribute to the growing “ancient” supply if they keep their Bitcoin in secure storage.
The Bottom Line
The increase in “ancient” Bitcoin is a big deal. It could change how people view Bitcoin’s scarcity and its future price. As less Bitcoin is actively traded, the impact of this growing hoard of inactive coins will likely become more significant. At the time of writing, one Bitcoin was worth around $104,888.