Analyst Bob Loukas, known for his “four-year cycle” Bitcoin trading strategy, isn’t worried about the recent price drop. He sees it as a normal part of Bitcoin’s volatility and a potential setup for a massive price increase.
Bitcoin’s Rollercoaster Ride
Bitcoin recently fell from around $110,000 to the $80,000 range – a roughly 22% drop. While this might be unsettling for some, Loukas points out that similar corrections are common throughout Bitcoin’s history. He anticipates a possible further drop to the low $80,000s or even the mid-$70,000s (a 30% drop from the high), but views this as a temporary “fear reset.” He believes this dip will shake out weaker hands, setting the stage for another significant price rally.
The Four-Year Cycle and Weekly Cycles
Loukas’s analysis centers around a four-year Bitcoin cycle, which he further breaks down into six-month “weekly cycles.” These cycles typically see a two-thirds upward movement followed by a one-third decline. He sees the current downturn as just another one of these normal declines within the larger four-year cycle.
A $153,000 Target?
Loukas’s model portfolio has a first sale target of around $153,000 per Bitcoin. This represents a potential 80% increase from the mid-$80,000 range. However, he emphasizes that this target is dependent on where the current decline bottoms out. He’s prepared to adjust this target if Bitcoin falls significantly further.
Warning Signs: A “Failed Weekly Cycle”
Loukas isn’t completely blind to the possibility of a bearish turn. If the next upward movement fails to surpass the previous high near $110,000 and then breaks below the new low, it would signal a potential change in the overall trend and suggest the four-year cycle might have already peaked. This “failed weekly cycle” scenario would be a major concern.
Altcoins Lagging Behind
Loukas notes a significant decoupling between Bitcoin and altcoins. He observes a lack of sustained interest in most altcoins, suggesting Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a distinct, mature asset class attracting institutional investors.
The Long-Term Outlook: Still Bullish
Loukas believes Bitcoin’s monthly chart doesn’t show signs of a cycle top. He thinks the market hasn’t completed the final leg of its four-year bull trend, potentially leading to another significant price increase by late 2025. However, he cautions that no cycle is guaranteed to perfectly repeat past patterns and remains vigilant for warning signs.
While acknowledging the possibility of a bearish reversal, Loukas’s overall outlook remains bullish, suggesting that the current dip is a temporary setback within a larger upward trend. He advises investors to remain patient and ride out the correction.
