A crypto analyst, known as Astronomer, is predicting a strong bull market for Bitcoin in the final quarter of 2024. He’s basing this prediction on historical data and a surprising trend in September.
September’s Unexpected Green
Astronomer points out that Bitcoin has performed unexpectedly well in September, potentially setting a record for the greenest September ever. This, he argues, supports his long-held belief that Bitcoin is about to break out.
Disconnect Between Perception and Reality
He also notes a gap between what people are saying about Bitcoin and what they’re actually doing. While many are publicly bullish, Astronomer claims that most haven’t actually positioned themselves for a bull market. They either took profits too early or are waiting for dips to buy in.
The Power of Historical Data
Astronomer’s bullish prediction is based on a simple but compelling analysis of Bitcoin’s price history. He found that every time Bitcoin had a green September, it was followed by three consecutive green months (October, November, and December). This pattern has occurred three times since Bitcoin’s inception.
A Word of Caution
While the data suggests a strong seasonal pattern, Astronomer acknowledges that his analysis is based on a small sample size. He admits that there’s a chance that this time could be different.
The 82% Chance
Despite the limitations of his data, Astronomer believes that there’s an 82% chance that Bitcoin will have a bullish Q4. He bases this on the fact that September’s performance has been a reliable indicator of the overall direction of Q4. In 9 out of 11 cases, a green September has been followed by a bullish Q4.
Skepticism and Response
Some people, like user @pieceofsheet99, remain skeptical, pointing out that just as September surprised everyone with its green performance, October could surprise everyone with a red performance. Astronomer, however, remains confident in his analysis, emphasizing his reliance on historical trends.
Strategic Optimism
Astronomer’s analysis concludes with a message of strategic optimism. He stresses the importance of aligning with market dynamics and historical patterns rather than chasing quick profits. He believes that by staying on the right side of the trade, investors can enjoy the market stress-free and avoid the regret of missing out or losing money.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $64,622.
