Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts Bitcoin (BTC) will outperform other cryptocurrencies (altcoins) for the rest of 2024. He bases this prediction on several key factors.
Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Weakness
Cowen, with a massive following on X (formerly Twitter), points to Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) hovering around 60%. BTC.D measures Bitcoin’s market cap against the total crypto market cap. Currently at 61%, this indicates Bitcoin’s growing share of the overall crypto market. He also highlights a chart called TOTAL3 (tracking the market cap of all cryptos except Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins), which he believes is poised for a decline against Bitcoin, mirroring a similar pattern seen in 2020. He suggests altcoins could fall further against Bitcoin, potentially reaching their lowest points within the current trading range. He notes that this could happen relatively quickly, as seen in November 2020. However, he acknowledges that not all altcoins will necessarily bottom out simultaneously.
Historical Precedent and Q4 Trends
Cowen cites historical data showing Bitcoin dominance tends to rise in the fourth quarter of years following a Bitcoin halving event. He suggests this trend could continue through the end of 2024, possibly into early January 2025. He emphasizes that while he anticipates Bitcoin dominance to decrease in 2025, much could change before then. Charts shared by Cowen visually demonstrate Bitcoin’s recent outperformance compared to other leading altcoins.
Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index Correlation
Interestingly, Cowen notes a growing correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US dollar’s value against other major currencies. He points out that this correlation isn’t unprecedented, citing a similar pattern in Q4 2016, challenging the common belief that Bitcoin and the DXY are always inversely related.
Bitcoin’s Current Price and Disclaimer
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $90,385, up 2.5% in the last 24 hours. It’s important to remember that this information is not financial advice. Always conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions, especially in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
