Bitcoin recently took a 30% dive, dropping below $75,000. But it’s bounced back, and there are signs the bull market might still be alive.
A Temporary Dip or Something More?
The crypto market’s recovery followed some positive news: President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs (except for China). This eased trade war worries and helped boost riskier assets like Bitcoin. Despite the volatility, Bitcoin’s resilience is noteworthy.
Whale Watching: A Bullish Sign?
Data from CryptoQuant shows something interesting: large Bitcoin holders (whales, excluding exchanges and miners) haven’t sold off their Bitcoin. In fact, they’re accumulating, just like they did during a sideways market period in August and September 2023. Historically, this whale accumulation often precedes significant price increases. This suggests the recent drop might just be a temporary correction within a larger bull market, not a complete market crash.
The $80,000 Question: Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading around $83,600, and is getting close to key technical levels. Breaking above the 200-day moving average (around $87,100) would be a strong signal for bulls. Holding above $81,000 and reclaiming $85,000 (near the 200-day exponential moving average) would further solidify this bullish outlook. However, if Bitcoin falls below $80,000-$81,000, it could trigger another drop towards $75,000.
The Bigger Picture: Macroeconomic Factors
Global tensions, especially the ongoing US-China trade dispute and fears of a recession, are still impacting markets. While the tariff pause offers some short-term relief, a lasting recovery depends on a broader agreement between the US and China. A resolution to these issues, potentially leading to increased liquidity from central banks, could further benefit assets like Bitcoin and gold. For now, the continued accumulation by whales remains a positive sign for Bitcoin’s future.
