For years, people have been predicting Bitcoin will hit six figures, but it’s still not there. With a new bull run on the horizon, though, the hype is back. One analyst has gone even further, using historical data to predict exactly when Bitcoin will reach $200,000.
The Power of History
This analyst, known as @apsk32 on X (formerly Twitter), has noticed a 13-year trend in Bitcoin’s price movements. They’ve used a fancy equation called a “power law” and a concept called “exponential decay” to figure out how high Bitcoin could go in each cycle, and how low it could drop afterwards.
The analyst created a visual representation of this trend, showing how Bitcoin’s price has risen and fallen in the past three bull and bear cycles. Based on this pattern, they believe Bitcoin will break through $100,000 and peak at or just below $200,000 in 2025. This fits with the typical four-year cycle Bitcoin seems to follow.
Bear Market on the Horizon?
The analyst’s model doesn’t just predict highs; it also predicts lows. They believe that in 2026, Bitcoin will drop about 57.5% from its $200,000 peak, hitting a low of around $85,000.
Will the Trend Hold?
Of course, some people are skeptical. They say that models can be wrong, and that Bitcoin could deviate from this trend. The analyst acknowledges this, saying that they’re keeping a close eye on things and looking for any signs that the pattern might be breaking down.
They also point out that even Bitcoin proponent Michael Saylor, who has famously said “all your models will be broken,” has presented a model that aligns with the power law trend.
Ultimately, the analyst says, “We don’t have to like this, but we need to respect it.” While they hope the trend might change, they’re also aware of the 13-year pattern that has held true so far.
