A crypto analyst, Melika Trader, is predicting a potential Bitcoin price crash of up to 60%, sending BTC plummeting to $49,000. Let’s break down their analysis and what it means.
A Potential 60% Bitcoin Crash
Melika Trader, using data from Binance, points to a critical support level that Bitcoin is precariously perched above. A break below this level, around $75,000 (after already losing support at ~$83,000), could trigger a sharp drop to $49,000. This would bring Bitcoin back to a high-volume trading range near $30,000. While this sounds incredibly bearish, there’s a twist.
Not Everyone Loses: The Silver Lining
Trader highlights that the majority of buying activity happened well below the current price, primarily in the $35,000 range. Many long-term holders and “smart money” got in during the 2022/2023 accumulation period. This means that only a small percentage of traders who bought near the recent highs above $70,000 would be significantly underwater in a drop to $49,000. Most investors are either still profitable or at break-even.
Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Over?
Adding fuel to the fire, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes the Bitcoin bull market is already over. He points to the “Realized Cap” metric. Essentially, if money is flowing into Bitcoin (Realized Cap growing), but the price isn’t rising (Market Cap stagnant or falling), it’s a bearish sign. This is what he’s currently observing. Even large purchases aren’t pushing the price up due to significant sell pressure. He anticipates a potential recovery could take at least six months.
The Current Situation
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $77,000, down significantly in the last 24 hours. While a short-term rally isn’t ruled out, the overall outlook presented by both analysts paints a cautious picture for Bitcoin’s near-term future.
