Bitcoin’s price is stuck in a tight range, hovering around $83,000. Buyers haven’t been able to push it back above $90,000, and sellers haven’t managed to break below $81,000. This uncertainty is fueled by global economic worries and recent tariff announcements.
A Glimpse of Hope: The “Dead Cross” Model
Despite the gloomy outlook, analyst Axel Adler offers a potentially positive interpretation using the Bitcoin Realized Price by Inter-Cycle Cohort Age model. This model identifies a “Dead Cross” – a point where the average price paid by newer investors falls below that of long-term holders. Historically, these “Dead Crosses” signal a correction phase within a larger bull market.
Adler’s analysis shows the current Dead Cross started 28 days ago. Based on past similar periods which averaged 85 days, the current correction could
last another 57 days. This isn’t a prediction of a sudden rebound, but it suggests the correction might be nearing its end. It’s important to note that a true bear market is only confirmed when Bitcoin falls below its 365-day moving average, which hasn’t happened yet.
Bitcoin Price Action: Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin’s recent failure to break above the $84,800 resistance level (the 4-hour 200 moving average) shows continued weakness. The $81,000 support is also looking shaky. A break below this could send Bitcoin down to the mid-$70,000 range.
Conversely, a decisive break above $88,000 would signal a shift in momentum, potentially starting a recovery. For now, Bitcoin is caught between these key levels, and the next few days will be crucial in determining its direction.
