Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, a popular figure with 874,000 YouTube subscribers, is predicting a downturn for altcoins in the third quarter of 2025. He bases this prediction on historical patterns.
Altcoin’s Fate Tied to Bitcoin
Cowen believes altcoin performance is heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s price movements. He points out that past cycles show a significant altcoin drop, followed by a recovery around November. He uses TOTAL3, an index tracking most digital assets excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, to support his claim. Currently, the TOTAL3/BTC ratio sits at 0.47, but Cowen predicts a fall below 0.27, a level historically associated with altcoin market crashes.
The Role of Bitcoin and Treasury Yields
Cowen emphasizes Bitcoin’s crucial role in altcoin market health. He suggests that if Bitcoin reaches new highs, altcoins will likely follow. However, a Bitcoin downturn could be accompanied by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields, a signal of reduced investor risk appetite, potentially triggering an altcoin crash. Past instances show a correlation between rising 10-year yields and Bitcoin consolidation or decline.
The Bottom Line
Cowen’s analysis suggests a potential altcoin market downturn in the summer of 2025, with a possible recovery later in the year. He stresses that this is just his prediction based on historical data and that investors should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
