Market Sentiment and Bitcoin’s Resemblance to 2016
Despite dwindling market sentiments, cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has noticed striking similarities between the current Bitcoin price action and the 2016 bull cycle.
Post-Halving Price Decline
Similar to 2016, Bitcoin has experienced further declines in the three weeks following the Halving, falling below the Range Low of its Re-Accumulation Range. Rekt Capital refers to this period as the “Post-Halving Danger Zone.”
Post-Halving Danger Zone
Rekt Capital has previously discussed the Post-Halving Danger Zone, and the current price decrease does not surprise him. In 2016, Bitcoin saw an 11% decline 21 days after the Halving before moving upward.
Rekt Capital predicts that downside volatility could occur within 15 days of the Halving, potentially reaching the $60,600 Range Low.
Pre-Halving Re-Accumulation and Rally
Rekt Capital also highlights a pattern between the 2016 and 2024 pre-Halving re-accumulation ranges. After breaking out of the range this year, Bitcoin experienced a Pre-Halving rally, as it did in 2016.
Pre-Halving Retrace Movement
After the Pre-Halving rally peaked, Bitcoin began its Pre-Halving retrace in both 2016 and 2024, occurring about 28 days before the Halving.
In 2016, the first week of the Pre-Halving Retrace saw a strong reaction indicated by a negative wick on the weekly candle. However, this reaction was short-lived and preceded an extended price decline.
Rekt Capital suggests that Bitcoin needs to maintain highs around $60,000 to avoid a similar fate to 2016.
