Bitcoin’s been on a rollercoaster lately. After hitting a record high of $124,000 in July, it’s been struggling. While some think this is just a temporary dip, crypto analyst EXCAVO is predicting a much harsher outcome: a full-blown bear market.
Why the Crash? EXCAVO’s Reasoning
EXCAVO sees three major warning signs pointing to a market peak:
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Universal Optimism: Everyone’s super bullish on Bitcoin, fueled by things like governments accepting crypto and companies buying up huge amounts. EXCAVO says this widespread positivity is a classic sign of a market top.
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Corporate Buying Frenzy: Companies like MicroStrategy have been gobbling up Bitcoin, accumulating tens of billions of dollars worth. This massive buying spree, EXCAVO argues, is another red flag.
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Positive Media Hype: The news is filled with positive Bitcoin stories. Investors are holding onto their Bitcoin, hoping for prices to hit $200,000, $300,000, or even $500,000. This reluctance to sell, EXCAVO believes, indicates the market has peaked.
The Analyst’s Plan: Sell Now, Buy Later
Based on these observations, EXCAVO has sold all their Bitcoin. Their plan is to wait until September 2026 before buying back in. They predict Bitcoin will plummet to below $61,000 by then.
This prediction is based on two things:
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Cycle Theory: This theory suggests Bitcoin has roughly 151 weeks of growth followed by 51 weeks of decline. EXCAVO believes the growth phase is over, and the bear market is about to begin between September 13th and October 6th.
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No Altcoin Season: With over a million cryptocurrencies out there, EXCAVO doesn’t think we’ll see a repeat of the 2017 altcoin boom where almost everything went up. Instead, they expect only selective altcoins to pump.
Long-Term Bullish, Short-Term Bearish
EXCAVO isn’t bearish forever. They still believe Bitcoin will eventually reach $300,000, but not anytime soon. They’re expecting a significant correction (50-60%) before that happens, with a recovery timeframe of about 2.5 years.
