Bitcoin’s currently hanging around $115,000, everyone’s holding their breath waiting for the Federal Reserve’s announcement tomorrow. After a bumpy few weeks, the market’s taking a breather, waiting to see what the Fed does next. Lower interest rates would be good news for risky investments, but everyone’s also watching to see if they’ll bring back quantitative easing. Either way, it’ll have a big impact on the economy and Bitcoin.
Whale Watching: Short-Term Holders Are Back in the Black
Analyst Darkfost points out some good news on the Bitcoin blockchain. The “Short-Term Holder” (STH) whales, who took a hit in early September, are back in profit. That earlier dip pushed them into the red, but history shows these dips are usually short-lived. Bitcoin usually bounces back pretty quickly after these small corrections.
This combination of positive blockchain data and the upcoming Fed decision makes this week super important. The $115,000 level is a key point; the Fed’s announcement could send Bitcoin soaring or into a deeper slump.
Short-Term Holders Hold the Line
Darkfost says that early September’s small correction put a lot of pressure on STH whales because it threatened their profits (around $108,000-$109,000). This price range became a major battleground, but the STH whales successfully defended it, preventing bigger losses and keeping the market relatively stable. This is a good sign, as similar situations in the past have led to Bitcoin resuming its upward climb. This suggests the current defense could be another springboard for growth.
However, the Fed’s decision is a huge unknown. While the technical and blockchain data look good, the Fed could still cause some major volatility. Darkfost says tomorrow’s announcement will give us much-needed clarity, potentially deciding whether Bitcoin keeps going up or consolidates further.
Bitcoin’s Current State: Consolidation at a Critical Level
Bitcoin’s currently trading around $115,482, showing some resilience. Looking at the daily chart, it’s consolidating near a crucial level after recovering from its September lows. The 50-day moving average ($114,355) is acting as immediate support, with the 100-day average ($112,782) providing extra backup. The 200-day average is much lower at $102,810, suggesting a generally bullish trend despite the short-term uncertainty.
Resistance sits around $116,000–$117,000. Breaking through this could lead to a retest of $123,217. If it drops below the 50-day moving average, we could see a pullback to $113,000 or even $112,000. Basically, Bitcoin’s in a holding pattern until we get some clarity from the Fed. If the Fed cuts rates without causing a panic, Bitcoin could jump higher. Until then, expect some sideways movement and potential volatility.